Oneok, Inc. OKE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Oneok, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +41.0% year-over-year change, based on 29 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.59 per $1). The ARDL model has 11.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 11.8% MAPE, the model captures Oneok, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.59 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.2B
+41.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.59 per $1
Model Accuracy
11.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.6B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 38.0%.
Note:
Oneok, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($1.9B) came in 38% below the spending-based forecast ($2.6B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2015 | $2.6B | $1.9B | $1.8B – $3.4B | -16.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2015 | $3.0B | $1.8B – $4.1B | +4.2% | ||
| Q2 2016 | $3.1B | $1.7B – $4.5B | +71.8% | ||
| Q3 2016 | $3.1B | $1.5B – $4.7B | +45.7% | ||
| Q4 2016 | $3.1B | $1.3B – $4.8B | +61.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Oneok, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0238 | +2.4% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0986 | +9.9% | +9.9% above trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0553 | +5.5% | +5.5% above trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0212 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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