What is PGR's forecasted revenue?

Progressive Corp/Oh/ is forecasted to generate $100.0B in FY revenue, representing +14.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PGR revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.6% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $23B versus the actual $23B.

Progressive Corp/Oh/ PGR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is set to grow roughly 14% year over year to about $114 billion, as Progressive benefits from continued pricing discipline and favorable mix in core auto and homeowners lines. Our econometric model, a log-log framework with fixed coefficients estimated over 70 quarters, supports the outlook and shows holdout accuracy within about 2% (predicted $23.2B vs actual $22.7B) and an overall MAPE of 2.6%, underscoring forecast credibility. Time-varying elasticity shows SG&A's impact on revenue has risen from negative to around 0.40x, meaning incremental SG&A spend is now more effective at driving topline growth than in the prior period. Key risk: a sharper catastrophe loss burden or a sudden reversal in rate increases could erode the revenue trajectory and temper the implied growth path.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Progressive Corp/Oh/'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.6% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.04x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$100.0B

+14.0% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.04x

Model Accuracy

2.6% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $23B vs the actual $23B — an error of 2.1%.

Note: Progressive Corp/Oh/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$23B	$23B	$22B – $25B	+14.5%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$24B		$21B – $26B	+15.5%
Q3 2026	$25B		$22B – $28B	+12.1%
Q4 2026	$26B		$22B – $30B	+14.2%
Q1 2027	$26B		$22B – $31B	+14.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Progressive Corp/Oh/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9939	-0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0136	+1.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9988	-0.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.996	-0.4%	In line with trend	17

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 70 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3958x

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