Philip Morris International Inc. PM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Philip Morris International Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $89B, a +14.6% year-over-year change, based on 13 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Philip Morris International Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Next FY Revenue
$89.5B
+14.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-1.89x
Model Accuracy
2.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $21B vs the actual $22B — an error of 2.7%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Philip Morris International Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2017 | $21B | $22B | $20B – $22B | +9.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2018 | $21B | $20B – $23B | +27.5% | ||
| Q3 2018 | $22B | $20B – $24B | +14.8% | ||
| Q4 2018 | $23B | $20B – $25B | +9.3% | ||
| Q1 2019 | $24B | $21B – $27B | +9.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Philip Morris International Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0003 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0044 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0023 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 2 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0359 | +3.6% | +3.6% above trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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