Permian Resources Corporation PR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 40 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Permian Resources Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.6B, a +10.2% year-over-year change, based on 40 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($30.67 per $1). The ARDL model has 21.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 21.3% MAPE, the model captures Permian Resources Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $30.67 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$5.58B
+10.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$30.67 per $1
Model Accuracy
21.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 13.1%.
Note:
Permian Resources Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +2.1% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | $1.1B – $1.5B | -2.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.6B | +15.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.7B | +7.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.5B | $1.1B – $1.8B | +24.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Permian Resources Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9986 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0665 | +6.7% | +6.7% above trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.943 | -5.7% | -5.7% below trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.028 | +2.8% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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