Rbc Bearings Incorporated RBC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 51 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Rbc Bearings Incorporated has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.9B, a +10.0% year-over-year change, based on 51 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.96x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.5% MAPE), suggesting Rbc Bearings Incorporated's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.96x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$1.92B
+10.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.96x
Model Accuracy
3.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $446B vs the actual $462B — an error of 3.5%.
Note:
Rbc Bearings Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $446B | $462B | $403B – $493B | +12.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $463B | $401B – $534B | +17.3% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $479B | $402B – $571B | +10.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $482B | $394B – $590B | +5.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $498B | $397B – $624B | +7.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Rbc Bearings Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9967 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9944 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0256 | +2.6% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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