Reddit, Inc. RDDT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Reddit, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.0B, a +83.9% year-over-year change, based on 12 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 5.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.9% MAPE), suggesting Reddit, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-6.89x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$4.05B
+83.9% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-6.89x
SG&A Elasticity
-1.26x
Model Accuracy
5.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.7B vs the actual $0.7B — an error of 6.9%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.7B | $0.7B | $0.6B – $0.8B | +58.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.8B | $0.6B – $1.0B | +100.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $0.9B | $0.7B – $1.2B | +83.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.1B | $0.8B – $1.5B | +84.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.3B | $0.9B – $1.8B | +75.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Reddit, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9907 | -0.9% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0039 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9715 | -2.9% | In line with trend | 2 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9766 | -2.3% | In line with trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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