Royal Gold, Inc RGLD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Royal Gold, Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.4B, a +39.8% year-over-year change, based on 33 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 2.56x). The ARDL model has 8.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 8.8% MAPE, the model captures Royal Gold, Inc's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 2.56x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$1.44B
+39.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
2.56x
Model Accuracy
8.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $282B vs the actual $375B — an error of 25.0%.
Note:
Royal Gold, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($375M) came in 25% above the spending-based forecast ($282M). This suggests that Royal Gold, Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $282B | $375B | $230B – $345B | +39.0% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $310B | $232B – $412B | +60.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $341B | $240B – $484B | +62.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $375B | $250B – $563B | +48.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $415B | $264B – $653B | +10.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Royal Gold, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0476 | +4.8% | +4.8% above trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0099 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9482 | -5.2% | -5.2% below trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0198 | +2.0% | In line with trend | 5 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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