What is RKT's forecasted revenue?

Rocket Companies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $200.0M in FY revenue, representing +60.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the RKT revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 31.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $23M versus the actual $29M.

Rocket Companies, Inc. RKT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is expected to grow roughly 60% year over year, taking Rocket to about $320 million next year as the business continues to scale and leverage platform momentum. According to our econometric model, structural/platform growth accounts for about 48% of the lift while SG&A spending contributes the remaining 52%; SG&A elasticity has risen, meaning incremental spend translates into outsized topline gains. The binding constraint on growth is the ability to scale loan origination capacity—funding, processing, and fulfillment—to absorb higher SG&A spend. Key risk: a deceleration in mortgage demand or bottlenecks in scaling origination operations could cap upside, even with strong spend efficiency.

Investment Thesis

At 31.8% MAPE, the model captures Rocket Companies, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.61x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$200.0M

+60.0% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.61x

Model Accuracy

31.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $23M vs the actual $29M — an error of 20.7%.

Note: Rocket Companies, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($29M) came in 21% above the spending-based forecast ($23M). This suggests that Rocket Companies, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$23M	$29M	$11M – $46M	+0.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$40M		$15M – $111M	+44.4%
Q3 2026	$69M		$20M – $236M	+110.4%
Q4 2026	$37M		$8.9M – $154M	+3.9%
Q1 2027	$54M		$11M – $265M	+87.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Rocket Companies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.2381	+23.8%	+23.8% above trend	6
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.1949	+19.5%	+19.5% above trend	6
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.87	-13.0%	-13.0% below trend	5
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.8958	-10.4%	-10.4% below trend	6

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 26 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.4725x

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