Starbucks Corporation SBUX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Starbucks Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $39B, a +4.1% year-over-year change, based on 54 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($13.39 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.4% MAPE), suggesting Starbucks Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $13.39 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$39.1B
+4.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$13.39 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $9.6B vs the actual $9.9B — an error of 2.8%.
Note:
Starbucks Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $9.6B | $9.9B | $8.8B – $10B | +5.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $9.7B | $8.5B – $11B | +3.0% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $9.8B | $8.4B – $11B | +11.5% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $9.8B | $8.1B – $11B | +3.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $9.9B | $8.0B – $12B | -0.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Starbucks Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9952 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 1 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0473 | +4.7% | +4.7% above trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9803 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0186 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch