Southern Copper Corp/ SCCO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Southern Copper Corp/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $13B, a -3.9% year-over-year change, based on 60 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($196.32 per $1). The ARDL model has 71.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 71.8% MAPE, the model captures Southern Copper Corp/'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $196.32 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.9B
-3.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$196.32 per $1
Model Accuracy
71.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.3B vs the actual $3.9B — an error of 15.0%.
Note:
Southern Copper Corp/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($3.9B) came in 15% above the spending-based forecast ($3.3B). This suggests that Southern Copper Corp/'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | $3.9B | $2.6B – $4.0B | +18.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.2B | $2.3B – $4.2B | +3.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.2B | $2.1B – $4.4B | +5.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.2B | $1.9B – $4.6B | -4.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.2B | $1.7B – $4.7B | -17.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Southern Copper Corp/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9842 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.045 | +4.5% | +4.5% above trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0213 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9937 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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