Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $11.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $67.8B across the next four quarters (+73.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 25.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$67.8B
+73.7% YoY
R&D Elasticity
2.69x
SG&A Elasticity
1.20x
Training Fit
8.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $14.00B vs the actual $11.12B — an error of 25.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($11B) came in 26% below the spending-based forecast ($14B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

SMCI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $14.00B $11.12B $11.16B–$17.56B +143.2% ✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $9.42B $6.84B–$12.98B +87.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $16.02B $10.83B–$23.72B +26.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $17.39B $11.06B–$27.36B +69.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $25.00B $15.07B–$41.48B +124.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 1.0316 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 15
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.957 -4.3% -4.3% below trend 15
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9618 -3.8% -3.8% below trend 15
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.019 +1.9% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

SMCI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.2079x • R&D elasticity: -0.8518x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 64 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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