What is SNOW's forecasted revenue?

Snowflake Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.98B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +28.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SNOW revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.5B versus the actual $1.5B.

Snowflake Inc. SNOW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Snowflake Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.5B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $7.0B across the next four quarters (+28.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$6.98B

+28.4% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.42x

SG&A Elasticity

0.89x

Training Fit

1.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $1.49B vs the actual $1.55B — an error of 4.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-07-31	$1.49B	$1.55B	$1.42B–$1.55B	+29.7%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-10-31	$1.59B		$1.49B–$1.69B	+30.8%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$1.69B		$1.57B–$1.82B	+31.4%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-04-30	$1.79B		$1.65B–$1.95B	+29.0%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-07-31	$1.91B		$1.74B–$2.10B	+23.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Snowflake Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9955	-0.5%	In line with trend	7
FQ2 (May–Jul)	1.0097	+1.0%	In line with trend	6
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	1.0143	+1.4%	In line with trend	6
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	0.9912	-0.9%	In line with trend	7

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 28 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0023x • R&D elasticity: -0.7426x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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