Simon Property Group, inc. SPG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Simon Property Group, inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.7B, a +4.8% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($30.49 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.3% MAPE), suggesting Simon Property Group, inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $30.49 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$6.67B
+4.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$30.49 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.6B vs the actual $1.8B — an error of 8.0%.
Note:
Simon Property Group, inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.5B – $1.8B | +4.1% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | $1.4B – $1.8B | +11.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | $1.4B – $1.9B | +9.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.7B | $1.4B – $1.9B | +4.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.7B | $1.4B – $2.0B | -3.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Simon Property Group, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0346 | +3.5% | +3.5% above trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0338 | +3.4% | +3.4% above trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9604 | -4.0% | -4.0% below trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0124 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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