What is TPL's forecasted revenue?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is forecasted to generate $762.8M in FY revenue, representing -4.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TPL revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $206M versus the actual $212M.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is largely driven by SG&A efficiency, with the model implying that each dollar of SG&A spending yields about $2.10 of long-run revenue, based on 24 quarters of linear data. The model achieves 5.3% MAPE and on holdout testing predicted 206M versus actual 212M, a 2.6% error, indicating credible short-term forecasting. The FY revenue forecast is 763M, down 4.4% year over year. Investors should note the strong SG&A ROI supports revenue generation even as the year shows a modest top-line decline, making ongoing SG&A efficiency and other revenue sources key to sustaining growth.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.3% MAPE), suggesting Texas Pacific Land Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.10 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$762.8M

-4.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$2.10 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $206M vs the actual $212M — an error of 2.6%.

Note: Texas Pacific Land Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$206M	$212M	$185M – $227M	+10.9%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$194M		$164M – $223M	-1.1%
Q3 2026	$192M		$156M – $229M	+2.5%
Q4 2026	$194M		$152M – $235M	-4.7%
Q1 2027	$183M		$136M – $230M	-13.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Texas Pacific Land Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0154	+1.5%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0262	+2.6%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0137	+1.4%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9818	-1.8%	In line with trend	5

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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