Trade Desk, Inc. TTD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Trade Desk, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $715M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.5B across the next four quarters (+16.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.47B
+16.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$5.71 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$1.87 per $1
Training Fit
5.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $800.3M vs the actual $715.1M — an error of 11.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

TTD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $800.3M $715.1M $758.8M–$841.9M +15.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $851.6M $792.8M–$910.4M +15.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $944.6M $872.6M–$1.02B +11.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $766.5M $683.4M–$849.7M +11.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $906.9M $813.9M–$999.9M +26.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Trade Desk, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9729 -2.7% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9947 -0.5% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0313 +3.1% +3.1% above trend 8

Spending and Revenue

TTD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1709x • R&D elasticity: -0.0375x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 37 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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