Visa Inc. V
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Visa Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $46B, a +14.7% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.35 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Visa Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.35 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$46.1B
+14.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.35 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $11B — an error of 3.6%.
Note:
Visa Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $11B | $11B | $10.0B – $11B | +18.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $11B | $10B – $12B | +14.4% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $11B | $10B – $12B | +18.0% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $12B | $11B – $13B | +15.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $11B – $13B | +11.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Visa Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0332 | +3.3% | +3.3% above trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9773 | -2.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9951 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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