Vale S.a. VALE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Vale S.a. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $48B, a -1.0% year-over-year change, based on 16 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 7.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.7% MAPE), suggesting Vale S.a.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-1.85x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$48.2B
-1.0% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-1.85x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.14x
Model Accuracy
7.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $13B vs the actual $14B — an error of 11.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2012 | $13B | $14B | $11B – $15B | -14.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2013 | $12B | $9.3B – $16B | +6.2% | ||
| Q3 2013 | $12B | $8.8B – $16B | -0.6% | ||
| Q4 2013 | $12B | $8.4B – $17B | +10.1% | ||
| Q1 2014 | $12B | $8.1B – $18B | -15.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Vale S.a.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0926 | +9.3% | +9.3% above trend | 4 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0529 | +5.3% | +5.3% above trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9962 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9335 | -6.7% | -6.7% below trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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