Waste Connections, Inc. WCN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Waste Connections, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +14.3% year-over-year change, based on 42 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.04x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Waste Connections, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.04x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$10.8B
+14.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.04x
Model Accuracy
1.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.5B vs the actual $2.4B — an error of 4.5%.
Note:
Waste Connections, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B | $2.4B | $2.4B – $2.6B | +9.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | $2.4B – $2.8B | +16.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | $2.4B – $2.9B | +11.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.7B | $2.5B – $3.0B | +11.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.8B | $2.5B – $3.2B | +18.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Waste Connections, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0041 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9936 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9925 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0074 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 10 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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