West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $872M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.5B across the next four quarters (+34.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.46B
+34.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.40x
SG&A Elasticity
1.60x
Training Fit
2.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $952.6M vs the actual $872.3M — an error of 9.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

WST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $952.6M $872.3M $898.7M–$1.01B +24.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $991.4M $913.0M–$1.08B +23.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.08B $979.4M–$1.20B +34.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.12B $997.0M–$1.26B +32.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.27B $1.11B–$1.44B +45.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9905 -1.0% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0192 +1.9% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9924 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9939 -0.6% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

WST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5968x • R&D elasticity: -0.2018x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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