What is WWD's forecasted revenue?

Woodward, Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.88B in FY revenue, representing +8.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WWD revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.9B versus the actual $1.0B.

Woodward, Inc. WWD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Woodward, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.9B, a +8.8% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.48x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.93x). The ARDL model has 5.4% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.4% MAPE), suggesting Woodward, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.48x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.48% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.93x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$3.88B

+8.8% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.48x

SG&A Elasticity

0.93x

Model Accuracy

5.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.9B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 8.6%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$0.9B	$1.0B	$0.8B – $1.0B	+7.4%	✓ In range
Q4 2025	$0.9B		$0.8B – $1.1B	+20.9%
Q1 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.2B	+8.5%
Q2 2026	$1.0B		$0.7B – $1.3B	+7.3%
Q3 2026	$1.0B		$0.7B – $1.4B	+1.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Woodward, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.974	-2.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0372	+3.7%	+3.7% above trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9926	-0.7%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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