Yum China Holdings, Inc. YUMC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 41 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Yum China Holdings, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -2.4% year-over-year change, based on 41 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($16.15 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $16.15 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$11.5B
-2.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$16.15 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.7B vs the actual $2.8B — an error of 3.8%.
Note:
Yum China Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | $2.8B | $2.4B – $3.0B | +4.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.0B | $2.6B – $3.4B | +1.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | $2.2B – $3.3B | -2.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.0B | $2.4B – $3.6B | -5.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.7B | $2.1B – $3.4B | -3.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9887 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9738 | -2.6% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0386 | +3.9% | +3.9% above trend | 9 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0043 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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