Zoom Communications, Inc. ZM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Zoom Communications, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.2B, a -14.2% year-over-year change, based on 29 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 5.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.6% MAPE), suggesting Zoom Communications, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-3.53x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$4.18B
-14.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-3.53x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.65x
Model Accuracy
5.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 8.2%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.3B | -3.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | $0.9B – $1.3B | -7.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | $0.8B – $1.3B | -13.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.4B | -15.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.0B | $0.7B – $1.3B | -20.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Zoom Communications, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9607 | -3.9% | -3.9% below trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0414 | +4.1% | +4.1% above trend | 5 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0103 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9856 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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