Blackstone Inc. BX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue hinges on SG&A spending, with a linear model projecting that every $1 of SG&A generates $8.83 in long-run revenue. However, model accuracy is poor (306.3% MAPE), and out-of-sample tests miss the actual result by about 18.9% (predicted $3.5B vs $4.4B). The latest quarterly revenue is $4.36B, supporting an annual run-rate near the $14B forecast. The FY outlook calls for roughly $14B in revenue, down about 2% year over year, implying modest top-line pressure but potential upside if SG&A-driven leverage proves durable.

Investment Thesis

At 306.3% MAPE, the model captures Blackstone Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $8.83 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$14.1B
-2.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$8.83 per $1
Model Accuracy
306.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.5B vs the actual $4.4B — an error of 18.9%.
Note: Blackstone Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($4.4B) came in 19% above the spending-based forecast ($3.5B). This suggests that Blackstone Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

BX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3.5B $4.4B $1.4B – $5.6B +14.7% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $3.2B $0.3B – $6.2B -1.3%
Q3 2026 $3.4B $-0.3B – $7.0B -9.5%
Q4 2026 $3.8B $-0.4B – $8.0B +22.4%
Q1 2027 $3.7B $-1.0B – $8.5B -14.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Blackstone Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.8976 -10.2% -10.2% below trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9454 -5.5% -5.5% below trend 16
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.151 +15.1% +15.1% above trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.094 +9.4% +9.4% above trend 14

How Spending Drives Revenue

BX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 66 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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