Lam Research Corporation LRCX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Lam Research Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $6.7B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $28.0B across the next four quarters (+20.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$28.0B
+20.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.55x
SG&A Elasticity
1.81x
Training Fit
5.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $6.91B vs the actual $6.72B — an error of 2.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

LRCX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $6.91B $6.72B $6.07B–$7.87B +33.6% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-28		 $6.87B $5.72B–$8.26B +29.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-28		 $6.60B $5.27B–$8.27B +23.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $6.75B $5.21B–$8.76B +15.6%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $7.79B $5.82B–$10.42B +15.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lam Research Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 1.018 +1.8% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.9934 -0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9883 -1.2% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0102 +1.0% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

LRCX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8092x • R&D elasticity: 1.7591x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 68 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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