Msci Inc. MSCI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Msci Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $867M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.7B across the next four quarters (+10.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.67B
+10.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.48x
SG&A Elasticity
0.98x
Training Fit
1.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $858.6M vs the actual $867.0M — an error of 1.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

MSCI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $858.6M $867.0M $814.0M–$905.7M +11.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $882.1M $835.0M–$932.0M +11.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $902.8M $850.0M–$958.9M +9.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $939.6M $877.1M–$1.01B +10.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $949.4M $887.7M–$1.02B +9.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Msci Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9901 -1.0% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0064 +0.6% In line with trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9997 -0.0% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9848 -1.5% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

MSCI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 50 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0773x • R&D elasticity: 0.0244x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 50 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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