Encore Capital Group, Inc. ECPG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Encore Capital Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.6B, a -10.2% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.70x). The ARDL model has 9.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.7% MAPE, the model captures Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.70x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$1.59B
-10.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.70x
Model Accuracy
9.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $421B vs the actual $474B — an error of 11.2%.
Note:
Encore Capital Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $421B | $474B | $319B – $555B | +58.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $405B | $274B – $600B | +3.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $397B | $245B – $642B | -10.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $393B | $226B – $685B | -14.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $393B | $211B – $730B | -17.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9996 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9431 | -5.7% | -5.7% below trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0149 | +1.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0107 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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